Manitoba’s Youth Exodus: The Alarming Trend No One Is Stopping

Manitoba is bleeding its future. That’s not an exaggeration. It’s a data-backed reality.

Over the past decade, thousands of our young people have packed up and left Manitoba for other provinces. And it’s not a new trend. In fact, it’s been happening for decades. What’s alarming now is the scale and consistency of the losses — and the lack of any effective action to stop it.

In 2022-2023, Manitoba recorded its highest net interprovincial migration loss since 1980, over 10,200 people. That’s more than 10,000 Manitobans who decided they were better off somewhere else. The year before that? Almost exactly the same. The year before that? Thousands more. And the group leading the charge out of the province? Young people aged 20 to 24 — the same group we need to build the future workforce, pay into the tax system, and start families here.

In total, from 1971 to 2016, Manitoba lost 224,215 more people to other provinces than we gained.

This is more than a brain drain. It’s a loss of ambition, of energy, of opportunity. And yet, all we get from our provincial government are recycled talking points and empty promises.

A year ago, Premier Wab Kinew said he was “open to changing policy” to stop the outmigration. He said his government could “move the needle” by creating jobs, keeping living costs down, and promoting Manitoba’s cultural assets. That needle hasn’t moved — or if it has, it’s in the wrong direction.

Let’s not pretend this is just bad luck. Other provinces are pulling ahead. Alberta, in particular, is doing what Manitoba should be doing — attracting major investments, selling the province’s advantages, and working aggressively to bring in high-paying jobs. The world’s largest AI data centre, worth $70 billion, is being built in rural Alberta — not Calgary, not Toronto — but Greenview, Alberta. Why? Because Alberta leaders picked up the phone, made the pitch, and closed the deal.

We need to start doing the same. Manitoba has a lot to offer: lower housing costs, stable infrastructure, affordable clean energy, and a quality of life that matters to young professionals and their families. But we don’t sell it. Not hard enough.

And when we do make policy moves, we often go backward. Take the Graduate Tuition Tax Rebate. It offered young graduates a reason to stay — up to $25,000 in tax relief if they lived and worked in Manitoba. The program wasn’t perfect, but it had potential. The PC government cancelled it instead of improving it or targeting it to high-need professions like nurses, paramedics, or engineers. That’s not just short-sighted. It’s self-defeating.

The NDP could bring back a revised and targeted version of that tax credit, which would be a good start. But we also need new ideas — bold, creative approaches that show young people there’s a future here worth fighting for.

What could that look like?

It could mean job guarantees for grads in high-demand fields. Nova Scotia, for example, offers a Return of Service Agreement that guarantees employment for medical graduates who commit to working in underserved communities. It could mean startup grants for young entrepreneurs who want to build businesses here, like Ontario’s Starter Company Plus program, which provides funding and mentorship to aspiring business owners aged 18 and up. It could mean housing incentives for those who stay five years post-graduation, similar to Saskatchewan’s Graduate Retention Program, which rebates up to $20,000 of tuition costs for grads who live and work in the province. Other provinces and countries are doing this already. We don’t need to reinvent the wheel — we just need to stop ignoring the problem.

We also need to take a hard look at what’s pulling young people away. Many leave because of better job prospects in tech, energy, and finance. But those sectors don’t grow on their own. Governments help attract them. Manitoba should be targeting major firms and offering clear, competitive advantages. Land is cheaper here. Energy is clean. Commutes are shorter. We need to get those messages in front of the people making location decisions at Fortune 500 companies — before other provinces do.

Look at what happened in Winnipeg from 2020 to 2021. The city lost 7,466 people to other provinces. That wiped out almost all the gains made from international immigration. If we’re just replacing young Manitobans with newcomers and watching the locals walk out the door, that’s not a winning strategy. It's a short-term fix masking a long-term failure.

Even Brandon and Thompson — the province’s next largest centres — saw net outflows. The appeal of Alberta, Ontario, and B.C. is strong. But we can't just accept that as reality. We have to compete.

And this isn’t just about numbers. It’s about the direction of the province. If we keep losing our next generation, the consequences will stretch far beyond a weaker labour pool. It means fewer entrepreneurs. Fewer homebuyers. Fewer parents in our schools. And eventually, fewer taxpayers supporting the services we all rely on.

Yes, Manitoba’s overall population is still growing — thanks largely to international immigration. In 2023-2024, 25,562 new immigrants arrived, lifting our population to around 1.47 million. That’s positive. But if our local young adults continue leaving, we’re setting up a cycle where we’re constantly replacing, rather than building.

We don’t have to accept this. But we do have to act. The government needs to stop “considering options” and start implementing solutions. Reintroduce targeted tax credits. Launch a provincial business recruitment campaign. Build partnerships with post-secondary institutions to create career pipelines. And make retention of young talent a key economic metric — not just an afterthought.

Manitoba is still a great place to live. But the future doesn’t sell itself. We need to get aggressive. We need to pitch our strengths. And we need to stop waiting for someone else to do it.

If we don't start fighting for our young people now, someone else will gladly take them. They already are.