Unpacking the Contradiction in NDP Fundraising Emails vs Wab

“Early election? No way,” Premier Wab Kinew told reporters recently. Fair enough. Politicians say that all the time. But when words and actions do not line up, people are right to ask questions. And right now, the Manitoba NDP’s actions tell a very different story.

Consider a fundraising email now circulating among party supporters. It is blunt, urgent, and revealing. The writer admits to being “worried.” They explain they must soon report directly to Wab Kinew and provide a list of donors. They openly fear having to tell the Premier they failed to raise enough money. If $23,000 does not materialize by the end of the week, plans will be cut. Organizers will not be hired. Candidates will not be nominated early. The party will not be “election ready.”

Read that again. A senior party operative is anxious about disappointing the Premier. Not about disappointing voters. Not about falling short on policy. About failing to deliver cash.

That is not how a healthy democracy should sound. It reads less like a grassroots appeal and more like a note from someone afraid to bring bad news up the chain. It paints a picture of centralized control, pressure, and a political machine that never really shuts off. You do not run year-end emergency fundraising drives unless you are preparing for something. Governments focused on governing do not talk about getting “election ready” two years early.

To be clear, the NDP is not unique. The Manitoba Progressive Conservatives do this. The Liberals do it federally and provincially. Parties in power spend public money with remarkable ease, then turn around and ask private citizens to refill the tank every year. Fundraising becomes a permanent campaign. It is an ugly cycle and everyone inside politics knows it.

We also know another truth. Politicians always say they will not call an early election. Many do. Brian Pallister did it in 2019, citing strong polling and the need for a fresh mandate. That was after Manitoba adopted fixed date election legislation in 2008. The law set elections for the first Tuesday in October, four years after the previous vote. It was meant to reduce gamesmanship. It did not remove the Premier’s discretion. Pallister proved that. Kinew knows that too.

Right now, Wab Kinew is riding high. Polls show him as the most popular premier in the country. That will not last forever. It never does. The Manitoba PC Party is not in great shape, and insiders know it. Several sitting MLAs are expected to leave before the next election. There are persistent rumours about a new political party forming in Manitoba. Fragmentation on the opposition side is every governing party’s dream.

That context matters. Elections are not called for you. They are not called so voters can hold governments accountable. They are called when the math looks good for the people already in power. They are called to exploit weak opponents, favourable polls, and short public memories.

The NDP also knows this. They ran on huge promises. Manitobans were told health care would be fixed, affordability addressed, and a new tone set at the Legislature. Yet Manitoba remains a have not province. Health care is still failing on the ground. Emergency rooms are overwhelmed. Wait times remain unacceptable. The province is running a massive deficit and continues to rely heavily on billions in federal transfer payments. Results have not matched the rhetoric.

That is why timing matters. The longer the same problems persist, the more questions get asked. Popularity erodes. Governments become defensive. So yes, all signs point toward preparation for an early election, regardless of public denials.

Even the recent Spruce Woods byelection fits the pattern. On paper, the PCs held the seat, but barely. Out of 14,920 registered voters, only 6,009 cast ballots. Turnout was just 40.3 percent. The NDP secured 45.5 percent of the vote. The PCs received 46.7 percent. The margin was 70 votes. That result likely caught the attention of the Premier’s Office. Did it signal a path for NDP competitiveness outside Winnipeg’s perimeter? For a political strategist, that is not noise. That is encouragement.

This is what I disliked most about politics when I was inside it. We spent more time discussing how to keep power than how to use it. More meetings about how to weaken the opposition than about how to make life better for Manitobans. I know the NDP has those meetings now. I know the PCs had them when I was there. It is all about power and control, not people.

Yes, Manitoba has fixed election dates. Since 2008, most elections have followed them. Only one snap election has been called under that framework. But the fact it can still happen is the problem. Maybe, just maybe, it is time to remove that option entirely. Other democracies do. In the United States, election dates are fixed. Period. No advantage to incumbents. No games.

Would that offend politicians? Absolutely. Would it concern them? Without question. Because it is not in their favour. They want to strike when the iron is hot. When popularity peaks. When the opposition is weak. When pensions are closer and risk is lower.

Imagine a system where governments were forced to serve their full term. Four years. No escape hatch. No polling driven shortcuts. Spend that time lowering taxes, cutting non essential spending, and fixing health care instead of planning how to extend time in office.

When I entered politics, I thought that was possible. I was ready to work. I wanted to push back on the usual ways of doing things. I believed results mattered more than positioning. Instead, I ran into the political wall. It was not about what we accomplished. It was about what we could promise if only we had more years of power.

That is the truth few admit. Governments measure success not by outcomes, but by how long they can stay in charge.

Maybe Wab Kinew will not call an early election. But his party’s fundraising emails, staffing plans, and strategic posture suggest they are thinking hard about it. They know the longer unresolved issues remain, the harder it gets. And that concern has little to do with you or me.

It has everything to do with power.