Wab Kinew’s Popularity Is Soaring, But Is Manitoba?

Premier Wab Kinew is riding high. His approval rating just hit 68 per cent—the highest in the country. It’s his sixth straight quarter above 60 per cent. From a political strategy standpoint, it’s impressive. From a public policy standpoint, it’s time we take a closer look.

Let’s be clear: Wab Kinew is a gifted communicator. He knows how to craft a message. He knows how to deliver it. He rarely stumbles in front of a camera, and he’s mastered the political art of saying the right thing at the right time. That’s an asset in politics. But communication isn’t leadership. And popularity isn’t performance.

The reality on the ground in Manitoba today is a far cry from the image presented at podiums and in press releases.

Start with affordability. Every working Manitoban is now paying more in income tax because of a tax increase the government won’t call a tax increase. It’s bracket creep—an old trick that quietly pushes people into higher tax brackets without raising the rates. It’ll pull $82 million more out of Manitobans’ pockets this year. That’s not relief. That’s erosion.

Utility costs are climbing. So are food prices. And basic services—from child care to car insurance—aren’t exactly improving. Most people aren’t feeling better off than they were two years ago.

On crime, the numbers and the stories speak for themselves. Communities are dealing with the same safety concerns we’ve been raising for years. The difference now is that there’s less sense that anything is being done about it. For all the government’s talk of “listening tours,” people don’t want more photo ops or hashtags. They want results—especially on crime, housing, and health care.

Then there’s the debt. It’s growing, fast. The government plans to borrow $36.6 billion by the end of the year. That’s $24,268 for every person in the province. And the cost of carrying that debt is $2.3 billion in annual interest payments—second highest in Canada. That’s $1,554 per person that could have gone to fixing roads, hiring nurses, or building schools. Instead, it’s paying off interest. Not principal. Just interest.

The Canadian Taxpayers Federation recently handed Finance Minister Adrien Sala an “F” for his last budget. Sala didn’t earn that grade in a vacuum. He works for the premier. And this government increased spending by 7.1% over last year with no serious plan to balance the books. That’s not fiscal management. That’s hoping nobody notices.

What concerns me more is that many people don’t notice—or don’t seem to care. Not because they’re uninformed, but because the Premier is very good at presenting himself. He’s framed his government as pragmatic, optimistic, and forward-looking. The language works. The poll numbers prove it. But again, we have to ask: are we judging politicians based on presentation or performance?

Look at the exodus of young people from this province. Manitoba is bleeding talent. Students are graduating and leaving. Tradespeople are heading west. Professionals are finding better opportunities elsewhere. Why? Because they’re not confident they can build the life they want here. That’s a long-term failure. And it’s not getting nearly enough attention.

The Premier has floated the idea of an energy corridor—perhaps even a pipeline to Hudson Bay. That caught national attention. It even drew some internal backlash within his party, including the resignation of a high-profile candidate. But in Manitoba, we’ve seen grand proposals come and go before. If this one is going to be real, it’ll need more than a news cycle and a sketch on a map. It will need alignment, not just among governments, but among investors, communities, and the public. We’re not there yet.

At the moment, this government is still in the business of announcing things more than delivering them. There’s no shortage of events, ribbon cuttings, and funding pledges. But Manitobans are starting to notice the gap between announcements and outcomes.

To be fair, every government faces tough circumstances. Wildfires, global inflation, and federal policies outside provincial control all create real challenges. But strong leadership is about navigating those challenges with a plan—not just explaining them away with a press release.

It’s also worth asking: how long can any government ride this high without showing more results? Approval ratings are volatile. They rise and fall quickly. But the impacts of poor policy—debt, tax increases, outmigration—stick around for years.

None of this is personal. I respect Premier Kinew’s ability to connect with people. He has a rare political skill, and he’s clearly focused on image building. I just wish he applied that same energy to fixing the fundamentals—getting the books in order, keeping our youth here, and restoring public trust in core institutions.

The deeper issue is one that we, as citizens, need to confront. Have we made politics a popularity contest? Do we reward polish over performance? If a premier with the country’s worst-ranked finance minister is also the most popular, maybe it’s time to reflect on what we value in our leaders.

Good communication matters. But it should never replace good governance. And in a province where costs are rising, crime is climbing, and young people are leaving, we can’t afford to keep confusing one for the other.