Manitoba’s Fiscal Failing Grade Is a Warning, Not a Surprise

When a failing report card lands on your desk, most people take it seriously. They reflect, ask what went wrong, and make changes. But in politics, especially here in Manitoba, it’s all shrugs and slogans. The Canadian Taxpayers Federation just handed Finance Minister Adrien Sala an F—the worst grade in the country, tied only with Newfoundland and Labrador. The numbers behind the grade are damning. But if you’ve been paying attention, you’re not shocked. This is what happens when balancing the budget isn’t a priority.

Let’s break it down.

Manitoba’s debt will hit $36.6 billion by the end of this year. That’s about $24,268 for every man, woman, and child in this province. Interest payments alone will cost taxpayers $2.3 billion this year. That’s $1,554 per person—the second highest in Canada. And it’s money we’re not spending on health care, education, infrastructure, or policing. It’s gone—flushed into the void to service debt.

Meanwhile, the government increased spending by 7.1% over last year. That’s not investment—it’s consumption, paid for with borrowed money. And just to make things worse, they quietly reinstated bracket creep—a hidden tax increase that’ll siphon another $82 million out of Manitobans’ wallets this year. Not exactly the affordability help we were promised.

The NDP loves to talk about big plans and big promises. But the math doesn’t lie. Premier Wab Kinew likes to say “the economic horse pulls the social cart.” Well, they’re beating that horse to death. Spending is running ahead of revenues. Debt is piling up. And there’s no serious plan to stop it.

Instead, we get press conferences. Announcements. Ribbon cuttings. That’s the strategy: talk often, sound busy, and hope people don’t look at the numbers. The only time we saw Adrien Sala get any traction in the news cycle was when the gas tax holiday rolled out—a one-time gimmick timed perfectly to make it look like the NDP was helping working families. But that’s politics. The kind that runs deep on optics and shallow on outcomes.

And let’s not pretend this is just a Manitoba problem. It’s part of a larger trend of governments spending like there’s no tomorrow. Warren Buffett put it plainly: “The arithmetic makes it plain that inflation is a far more devastating tax than anything that has been enacted by our legislatures.” But he didn’t stop there. He warned that “deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth.” That’s not a right-wing opinion. It’s just reality.

A $796 million deficit. $6.2 billion in borrowing this year alone. TD Economics projects Manitoba’s debt-to-GDP ratio will climb to 39% by 2025-26. For a province with a small population and a struggling investment climate, that’s a flashing red light. Yet the government continues on, pretending there’s no problem—just more slogans, more announcements, more spending.

Some will say, “But it’s for healthcare, childcare, affordability.” And yes, we all want those things. But let’s be clear—this isn’t long-term investment. It’s short-term spending, with borrowed dollars, to paper over systemic issues. That’s not leadership. It’s mismanagement.

And here’s what no politician wants to admit: debt kills growth. Businesses look at a province’s fiscal health before they invest. They don’t put down roots in high-debt, high-tax environments. That’s why over $225 billion in private investment has left Canada in the last nine years. It didn’t vanish—it went somewhere else. Somewhere more competitive. Somewhere with more certainty.

Manitoba should be part of that conversation. But we’re not. Investors are passing us over, and policies like bracket creep, red tape, and unbalanced budgets are the reason why. Our economic potential is real, but we’re squandering it with political tunnel vision and a refusal to make hard choices.

The excuses are running out. We are not a socialist country. We cannot afford to pretend the government can provide everything for everyone, forever. It doesn’t work. We’ve seen what happens when spending outruns revenue—it’s a long, slow decline into stagnation. Services degrade, taxes rise, and future options vanish.

The solution isn’t complicated. It’s discipline. It’s common sense. Governments need to live within their means. Balance the budget—not next year, not “when the time is right,” but now. That’s the first step to reducing debt. And only by reducing debt can we free up resources for what matters most—health care that works, schools that deliver, and roads that don’t crumble.

This isn’t about being left or right. It’s about being responsible. Because the debt doesn’t care who’s in charge, it grows quietly, relentlessly, and then—suddenly—it chokes out everything else.

We’re not out of options. But we are out of time. If we don’t demand a change in direction now, we’ll be paying the price for decades. And it won’t be just our generation that pays—it’ll be our kids, our grandkids, and the ones after them.

Manitoba has a choice to make. We can keep sleepwalking toward a fiscal cliff, or we can demand leadership that respects taxpayers, rewards hard work, and creates conditions for private-sector growth.

It starts with a simple truth: We’re out of money. Let’s start acting like it.